What happened
In April 2024 the Government Accountability Office published its first estimate of fraud across the whole federal government. It put the loss at $233 billion to $521 billion every year.
That is 3 to 7 percent of everything the government commits to spend. GAO built it from five years of data, 2018 through 2022.
Why nobody caught it
- Agencies don't measure fraud. They measure "improper payments," which mixes fraud with honest mistakes and missing paperwork.
- Fraud only gets counted once somebody is caught. GAO's estimate is an attempt to size what never gets caught.
- The estimate leaves out fraud against tax revenue, and fraud in state-run programs unless federal investigators reported it.
How sure are we?
An auditor, inspector general or the agency itself estimated the fraud. It's a measured range, not a list of names.
This is a statistical range, not a list of cases. GAO says not to apply the percentages to any single agency or program, and the real number could fall outside the range.
Sources
- GAO-24-105833: federal government loses an estimated $233B–$521B a year to fraudU.S. Government Accountability Office · Apr 16, 2024
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