Bigger than the crimes

Soft fraud

Hard fraud is someone stealing. Soft fraud is everyone shrugging: money paid without proof, paid too much, paid twice, lost track of, or never collected. No one has to break a law, so no one gets charged — and it runs into the trillions.

Official numbers

The soft-fraud receipt

Each figure comes from GAO, the IRS, Congress's Medicare advisers, a peer-reviewed study, or the government's own spending data. We don't add them together: they overlap and measure different things.

$3.0Tpaid wrong or without proof since 2004PaymentAccuracy.gov (OMB and CFO Council); totals summed by FraudBad, Nov 9, 2026 $1.3Tprojected Medicare Advantage overpayments, 2027–2036Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Jan 23, 2026 (updated Mar 5, 2026)$760–935Ba year wasted in U.S. health careEurekAlert! / JAMA Network, Oct 2019 $217Bowed to the government, overdue, and not collectedU.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, FY2024 report $123Bpaid wrong in one year when the data to stop it existedPaymentAccuracy.gov (OMB and CFO Council); totals summed by FraudBad, Nov 9, 2026 $696Ba year in taxes owed and not paid on timeInternal Revenue Service, Oct 10, 2024 $132–251Bin savings GAO found that nobody has takenU.S. Government Accountability Office, May 12, 2026 $160.4Bin top contracts with no descriptionUSAspending.gov (U.S. Treasury), pulled by FraudBad, Nov 9, 2026 $162Bin contracts signed in the last month of fiscal 2025USAspending.gov (U.S. Treasury), pulled by FraudBad, Nov 9, 2026

The method

How we search for soft fraud

Seven signals. Each one names where to look and what to measure, so anyone can repeat the search and check our work.

Paid without proof

Look for payments that went out without the records to show they were right.

Where we look: Agency improper-payment estimates and their "insufficient documentation" share; CMS error-rate reports.
What we measure: Share of dollars paid without documentation.

$95.5 billion: Health care money paid with no proof it was right →$2.98 trillion since 2004: Paid out without proof, year after year →$123 billion paid wrong: The data to stop it existed. Nobody checked. →$10.1 billion paid wrong or unproven: Venue grants: 69% paid wrong or without proof →$4.35 billion HUD can't verify: Rent subsidies HUD can't verify →

Paid more than everyone else

Compare what one buyer paid with what others paid for the same thing.

Where we look: Unit prices on federal orders (the RECEIPTS Act would publish these), inspector-general price audits, MedPAC's Medicare Advantage vs. traditional Medicare comparison.
What we measure: Price paid ÷ median price for the same item.

$76 billion in 2026: What Medicare overpays private insurance plans →$3.6 billion in one year: Medicare paid far more for cheap generics than an online pharmacy charges →

Over budget, behind schedule

Compare today's cost and date with what was promised.

Where we look: GAO's annual weapons assessment, the federal IT Dashboard, state and city capital-project audits.
What we measure: Current cost estimate ÷ original baseline; years of delay.

$122 billion in new cost growth: Weapons programs that went over budget this year →$100 billion+ a year: Federal tech money spent keeping old systems alive →$141 billion, 81% over estimate: The nuclear missile that's 81% over budget →$126–231 billion, from $33B promised: California's bullet train: $33 billion promised, up to $231 billion now →$10.1 billion, double the plan: Honolulu's rail line: twice the cost, a mile shorter →$7.7 billion for 1.5 miles: Second Avenue subway: $7.7 billion for a mile and a half →

Paying twice

Find programs that do the same job for the same people.

Where we look: GAO's annual duplication, overlap and fragmentation report and its open recommendations.
What we measure: Dollars in overlapping programs; GAO's estimated savings.

$132–251 billion left on the table: Savings the government's auditors found — and nobody took →

Owed and never collected

Count money the government is owed and never gets.

Where we look: IRS tax gap projections; Treasury's yearly report on delinquent non-tax debt; uncollected overpayment balances in agency financial reports.
What we measure: Money owed minus money collected.

$696 billion a year: Taxes owed that never get paid →$217 billion owed and overdue: Money owed to the government that it isn't collecting →$23 billion not yet recovered: Social Security overpayments that haven't come back →

Can't show where it went

Find spending nobody can trace or explain.

Where we look: Failed financial audits, USAspending.gov fields left blank, local audits that can't match spending to results.
What we measure: Dollars with no traceable recipient, purpose or result.

$160.4 billion with no description: Giant contracts the public can't read →$4.65 trillion in assets: Eight audits. Eight failures. →$2.3 billion: Homelessness money LA couldn't fully trace →

Spend it or lose it

Watch for spending rushed out before the money expires.

Where we look: Contract obligations by fiscal month on USAspending.gov. Research found agencies spend 4.9 times a normal week's amount in the last week of the fiscal year, and last-week IT projects were 2 to 6 times more likely to be rated lower quality.
What we measure: September's share of the year's contract obligations vs. 1/12 (8.3%).

$162 billion in one month: The September rush: spend it before it expires →

Signal 06, run live

The biggest contracts with no explanation

We pulled the 100 largest federal contracts with spending activity in fiscal 2026 from USAspending.gov — worth $1,171.8B together — and checked what each one says it's for.

Blank, or only a filing code: 9 contracts, $160.4B

Award value	Recipient	Agency	Published description
$51.27B	Humana Government Business Inc	Defense	IGF::OT::IGF	Award ↗
$48.06B	Lockheed Martin Corp	Energy	(blank)	Award ↗
$17.88B	Bechtel National, Inc.	Energy	(blank)	Award ↗
$10.01B	Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation	Defense	200506!000026!5700!FA8214!OO-ALC/PKME/LMKE !F	Award ↗
$9.03B	Lockheed Martin Corp	Defense	200207!000021!5700!CZ62 !SMC/PKJ LOS ANGELES AFB !F	Award ↗
$7.63B	The Boeing Company	Defense	(blank)	Award ↗
$6.10B	Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation	Defense	(blank)	Award ↗
$5.67B	Raytheon Company	Defense	(blank)	Award ↗
$4.70B	M1 Support Services, L.P.	Defense	IGF::OT::IGF	Award ↗

Three words or fewer: 14 more, $125.1B

Award value	Recipient	Agency	Published description
$31.97B	The Boeing Company	Defense	KC-X MODERNIZATION PROGRAM	Award ↗
$14.98B	Fluor Marine Propulsion, Llc	Defense	NAVAL NUCLEAR LABORATORY	Award ↗
$12.27B	Lockheed Martin Corporation	Defense	LRIP 11 AAC	Award ↗
$8.57B	The Aerospace Corporation	Defense	FY19 ENGINEERING SERVICES	Award ↗
$7.00B	Lockheed Martin Corporation	Defense	LRIP 9 AIRCRAFT AAC	Award ↗
$6.64B	Rtx Corporation	Defense	LOT 18 PNR/TOOLING	Award ↗
$6.32B	Lockheed Martin Corporation	Defense	HELLFIRE BUY 17 PRODUCTION.	Award ↗
$6.04B	Lockheed Martin Corporation	Defense	F-35 LRIP 8 AAC	Award ↗
$6.03B	Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation	Defense	ACAT 1D - CRH	Award ↗
$5.50B	The Boeing Company	Defense	F/A-18E AIRCRAFT	Award ↗
$5.17B	Electric Boat Corporation	Defense	LEAD YARD SUPPORT	Award ↗
$4.98B	Lockheed Martin Corporation	Defense	BASIC AWARD	Award ↗
$4.87B	Rtx Corporation	Defense	FY21 PBL2	Award ↗
$4.73B	Huntington Ingalls Incorporated	Defense	LPD 30 LLTM	Award ↗

Query: USAspending spending_by_award: contracts (A,B,C,D), action_date FY2026 (2025-10-01..2026-09-30), award amount >= $2B, top 100 by Award Amount. Pulled 2026-11-09. Award values are lifetime totals for awards with any action in fiscal 2026. A blank description is not proof of waste; it means the public can't tell what was bought.

27 cases

Every soft-fraud case

Soft fraud

The soft-fraud receipt

How we search for soft fraud

Paid without proof

Paid more than everyone else

Over budget, behind schedule

Paying twice

Owed and never collected

Can't show where it went

Spend it or lose it

The biggest contracts with no explanation

Blank, or only a filing code: 9 contracts, $160.4B

Three words or fewer: 14 more, $125.1B

Every soft-fraud case

Paid out without proof, year after year

What Medicare overpays private insurance plans

Wasted in American health care every year

Taxes owed that never get paid

Savings the government's auditors found — and nobody took

Money owed to the government that it isn't collecting

Paid out in error in fiscal 2025

The data to stop it existed. Nobody checked.

The September rush: spend it before it expires

California's bullet train: $33 billion promised, up to $231 billion now

Giant contracts the public can't read

The nuclear missile that's 81% over budget

Weapons programs that went over budget this year

Federal tech money spent keeping old systems alive

Health care money paid with no proof it was right

Eight audits. Eight failures.

Social Security overpayments that haven't come back

Venue grants: 69% paid wrong or without proof

Lost to waste, fraud and abuse rebuilding Afghanistan

Refundable tax credits paid out in error

Food aid paid in the wrong amount

Rent subsidies HUD can't verify

Honolulu's rail line: twice the cost, a mile shorter

Second Avenue subway: $7.7 billion for a mile and a half

Medicare paid far more for cheap generics than an online pharmacy charges

Unemployment money New York overpaid

Homelessness money LA couldn't fully trace

Want to stop it?Sign the Receipts Act.