Soft fraudFederal · U.S. Air ForceOver budget

$141 billion, 81% over estimate: The nuclear missile that's 81% over budget

The Air Force's Sentinel ICBM is now estimated at $140.9 billion, 81% more than projected in 2020. That triggered the law for runaway weapons costs. The Pentagon kept it going.

FraudBadPublic receipt
U.S. Air Force

Current cost estimate$140.9B¹
Growth over the September 2020 estimate81%¹
Overrun that triggered the legal review37%¹
Threshold in the law25%¹
OutcomeProgram continues¹
Final cost████████████████

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What happened

Sentinel is the Air Force's replacement for its Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles.

In July 2024 the Defense Department said Sentinel's cost had grown 81% over its September 2020 estimate, to $140.9 billion. The overrun set off a Nunn-McCurdy review, the process Congress set up for weapons programs whose costs run away.

Why nobody caught it

A program that breaches Nunn-McCurdy this badly is supposed to be canceled unless the Pentagon certifies it's essential. The Pentagon certified Sentinel and kept it going.

How sure are we?

Over budget

Officially measured cost growth or delay beyond what was promised.

The Pentagon's own figures, as reported by Federal News Network. Cost growth isn't fraud; it's money beyond what Congress was told.

Sources

DoD's troubled Sentinel program will continue despite ballooning costsFederal News Network · Jul 2024

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